After an unpredictable and volatile first half of the year, what should executives prepare for during the next six months and beyond?
A recent pulse survey of World 50 members indicated that economic slowdown and geopolitical instability posed the greatest threats to their businesses in the next 12 months. To help shape their thinking, members recently joined conversations with CEOs and experts who offered the geopolitical and economic trends to watch in the months ahead.
Global markets have a new operating system.
A major source of volatility is a structural shift toward “geoeconomics,” where geopolitics, domestic politics, and national security increasingly influence economic and business outcomes, Mohamed El-Erian told CEOs and CFOs recently. As evidence, the chief economic advisor at Allianz cited a little-known speech by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reframed seemingly haphazard trade policies as an administrative doctrine of economic statecraft. In this new world, global businesses must prepare to deal with the second- and third-order effects of economic statecraft, in which global supply chains become variables rather than parameters.
American-led geopolitical disruption is on the decline.
In Eurasia Group’s 2026 risk report, the United States ranked as the top risk driving more uncertainty and geopolitical volatility. That proved accurate during a volatile first half of 2026. But, said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, “I think that we have now passed peak Trump global disruption.” Headwinds to U.S. President Donald Trump’s global trade agenda include China, the markets, domestic popularity, and the U.S. Supreme Court. Bremmer predicted a decline in global risk caused by the U.S. but emphasized that disruption could still occur this year.
Low growth means that “fractious politics” are here to stay.
Ian Goldin, professor of globalisation and development at the University of Oxford, echoed members’ concerns about low economic growth and geopolitical risk, noting that they’re intertwined. “There is a high risk that growth will falter in the U.S. and in Europe,” he said. This low growth will drive increasingly fraught domestic and foreign politics as everyone is “fighting over a fixed pie.” He warned that geopolitical tensions and fractious national politics will prevent countries from working to address growing global risks like climate change and future pandemics. “So, we are in a very negative spiral at the moment.”
The business climate feels more like boom days than doomsday.
On a call with CEOs from public and privately held companies, a veteran CEO and advisor to private equity portfolios argued that the underlying economy is far more resilient than the headlines suggest. The Dow sold off nearly 20% the day of our call. Even so, he pointed to businesses demonstrating agility. Banks posted standout earnings. GE Vernova is investing several hundred million dollars to convert its plant in Greenville, South Carolina, to meet surging energy demand. And an M&A super cycle is running at 16 to 18 times LTM (last 12 months) multiples as financial buyers and strategic partners race to close deals.